Vote a huge test for Trump

Vote a huge test for Trump

Vote a huge test for Trump

That narrative is based largely on national polls, and caution should be urged.

For Barbara - "I'm not going to tell you my last name", she insisted - the president's hardline rhetoric on immigration absolves him of a multitude of sins, including some of his most jarring remarks about women. So everyone should be prepared for surprises - because there always are some.

If the GOP House majority narrowed, which would be likely, that would make the next speaker's job even harder, with a more conservative conference to work with and less wiggle room for intra-party disagreements.

Attacks on favorite Trump foes House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters were staples of Trump's closing message to voters as he argued that Democrats would plunge the country into Venezuela-like chaos.

Should Democrats win control of the House, as strategists in both parties suggest is likely, they could derail Trump's legislative agenda for the next two years. That was during Republican President Ronald Reagan's first term, when turnout among Democrats rose at twice the rate of increase among Republicans, according to Pew Research Center, resulting in a net gain of 26 seats for Democrats in the House. Democrats will need to keep all their seats while gaining two from the Republicans to gain control. That right there is and has been a huge flashing red light for the GOP.

Democrats also threaten to recapture governor's offices in battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, a potential help for the party in those states in the 2020 presidential race. If McCaskill is able to defeat Republican Josh Hawley, the state's attorney general, that would be a positive sign for other Red State Democrats such as Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Jon Tester in Montana and Joe Manchin in West Virginia. DeSantis, a Republican, told Florida voters not to "monkey this up" on television (Gillum is a black man). The suburbs. If GOP women, an important group that Republicans need to bolster them, stay home, that's one way Democrats clean up in the House.

Republicans to hold the Senate.

Democrats face a far more hard challenge in the Senate, where they are nearly exclusively on defence in rural states where Trump remains popular.

Democrats feel they need to limit the losses in the Senate. And a status-quo election would actually set up Democrats very well to take over the chamber when they have much better opportunities in 2020 and 2022.

Voter turnout could be the highest for a midterm election in 50 years, experts predicted. She is not running as a progressive firebrand, but just as Brat rode the Tea Party wave against Cantor, Spanberger could capitalize on the suburban backlash to the President in a traditionally Republican district. And who pays for polls for the most part?

"Today is more than about Democrat and Republican - it's about restoring the Constitution's checks and balances to the Trump administration", she said, adding that some of the Dems' priorities would be healthcare and protecting coverage for pre-existing medical conditions, raising wages, lowering prescription drug prices, propelling infrastructure revitalization, and trying to "drain the swamp of dark interest money".

Still, his xenophobic rhetoric has been unprecedented for an American president in the modern era: "Barbed wire used properly can be a attractive sight", Trump told voters in Montana.

It would also be yet another reckoning for pollsters and media organizations that pay for the surveys. For Democrats such as Rosen who are in razor-thin races, the potency of the health care argument could be crucial to their chances. But if the polls are wrong, it should induce more than a shoulder shrug from outlets that conduct them and the news media organizations that report on them.

Tuesday's election boils down to three likely scenarios.

In some too-close-to-call districts where polls show better-educated Americans are less supportive of Trump than elsewhere, Republican candidates are distancing themselves from him to survive.

There are simply so many toss-ups - 30 in the House and nine in the Senate - that weird things can happen. That doesn't change. But for Democrats to pull this off in the Senate, not only would voters have to side with Democratic incumbents in conservative states, but Democratic challengers would have to win in places like Nevada and Arizona, and possibly Tennessee and Texas.

McAdams also said that if he wins, he hopes to work with Republicans on a transportation infrastructure package and on a fix to the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, a policy Trump has sought to end but has been in legal limbo for months. It would have to trigger a degree of soul-searching - in at least some Republican corners.

The most likely district to flip would be in the south-central 9th District anchored by Charlotte, where Democrat Dan McCready has outraised Republican Mark Harris, who upset current Rep. Robert Pittenger in the GOP primary in May. Democratic enthusiasm has been high since the day after the 2016 election and remains strong headed into Election Day, putting seats once assumed to be safe into play in the final days. It's possible those races are so close they will not be called on election night.

Barack Obama has unleashed his fury at his successor on the campaign trail, telling Americans to decide "what kind of politics" they want, with "politicians blatantly, repeatedly, baldly, shamelessly lying". In 2016, to the surprise of many, 319,000 absentee ballots were rejected for one reason or another. In 2014, it took two weeks for the state to announce the results of two House elections. Specifically, it could all come down to Mississippi. The consequences would be enormous, the rancor pitched and the tension thick.

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